A Minnesotan opinador

Writing about current and important things.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Expect Perry to Flip-flop on immigration if he wants Republican nomination

The republican nomination process has been more than amusing so far.

For one, MN had two contenders who never had serious chances of capturing the Republican nomination. Rep. Michelle Bachmann, whose district is facing the challenge of many kids facing herrasment and some who have committed suicide, I expect to drop soon. And I really hope her pray-the-gay-away clinic shuts down soon.

Anyways, what has now captured my attention is the fact the republican front-runners are facing a litmus test from its far-right base. The fact is that none of the two front-runners (i.e. Romney, Perry according to most polls) really score well on all the issues the republican right now raise.

Romney, of course, is dreaded for his healthcare reform and state-mandate.

Now, who sometimes I think has a chance against Pres. Obama, is Perry. However, Perry of all, fails big time meeting the republican right base. Perry, whose campaign for the presidency is only about three months old, had surprised and excited many because he surpassed campaigns that were well into the race, is now suffering because of his stances on immigration for example.

What this says is that the right base of the Republican party is inherently anti-immigrant and any one who wants to capture the Republican nomination next year must adhere to this purity test. Just remember that for some years now, a trend from the Reagan Administration years, purity tests are part of court nominations or being part of a party, especially the republican party. Of course it is interesting that not even Reagan could please today's Republican crowd (i.e. he passed immigration reform in 1986....).
It is this anti-immigrant sentiment in the republican party that is hurting Perry. Perry signed into law the state Dream Act, giving undocumented students in-state tuition benefits, making it more likely that many immigrant, many Latin@ students will graduate from high school and go onto college. In some ways, this is also a good attempt to capture the Latin@ vote. Perry has even won over conservative journalists like Ruben Navarrete, especially because he has defended the Dream Act time after time.

Here is the test: will Perry stick to his guns on this small, but important pro-immigrant legislation or is he going to fall prey to the far-right controlled Republican party? They are not going to decide who wins the presidency because they are a small number of voters, but they are certainly shaping the race and will shape the primary. Perry has no chance of winning over moderates, or independents, if he wants to win over a small number of republicans who are over active and reactive.

We know that he didn't want an AZ "show me your papers brown person" law. He said it wasn't for TX, and I assume he does not want something like that nationally. We also know many other states like the AZ law and we know and have heard from the campaign trail that anti-immigrant measures are key to win over republican voters. So, here is another test for Perry; he is going to be questioned for his stance against the AZ law in TX.

Perry has to flip-flop, just like McCain did in 2008 over immigration and other things in order to win his party's nomination. Perry must denounce the TX Dream Act if he wants to stand a chance in becoming the Republican Candidate against Barack Obama. This we have seen from the last few debates; anti-immigrants have taken over. Perry does not stand a chance against them; he must become one of them if he wants to win over them.

[Even the son of immigrants are anti-immigrants--Rubio (FL)--or grandchildren of undocumented immigrants--Martinez (NM)--or immigrants themselves--Montenegro (AZ)--in order to please the Republican base.]

Perry's flip-flops over immigration are forthcoming; and not even conservative journalists like Navarrete want to admit it. The Reagan revolution is over. This is a counterrevolution against Reagan's or Bushe's hopes for that matter to create a more diverse Republican Party.

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